Thursday, August 14, 2008

Whipsaw week

One trade today, sold 100 more of the DZZ.

In 24.65, out 34.25. I put an ask way out there today, just to see if it'd get hit and it did.

None of my other limits were hit.

I had figured on a violent commodity bounce soon, but yesterday caught me leaning the wrong way and without my stops moved. This market doesn't seem to want to stay with a thesis for more than a few days. My thinking is, if you have a quick 10% in something, don't screw around; take some profits.

The things I'm watching:

On the short side:

- Here comes FRO, just about where you want to try a short. Puts with any time in them are really expensive, which, of course, is information too.

Long side:

- Watching WTR. 18 is a very important resistance area. Water group has been strong the last couple of weeks.

- Retail/apparel has been strong on the long side the last couple of weeks too. COH is my favorite chart in this group. After its breakout, it settled right back onto that 30 support area. Still overbought right now.

Also in this group, APP would be good above resistance, call it 7.50-ish. I'd be willing to put on a half-position here.

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