Sick the last several days... passed a kidney stone yesterday. I never trade or plan a trade when I'm sick.
Best to stand aside here. LEH is the elephant in the room at the open.
Outside of that, what I'm looking at: FXE makes an island. This is one of several indications $USD might be heading lower.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
A little snap trade yesterday
Trying to take advantage of all the intraday volatility plus the fact that LEH looks like a goner.
I got hit, surprisingly, on a lowball bid for some ITM Oct LEH puts, in at 3.30/out at 4.00.
If they're handing out hundred dollar bills at the door, might as well get in line...
I got hit, surprisingly, on a lowball bid for some ITM Oct LEH puts, in at 3.30/out at 4.00.
If they're handing out hundred dollar bills at the door, might as well get in line...
Monday, September 8, 2008
Fannie Monday
My catalyst - Ike entering the GoM - was predicted by the models before the open, so I closed the trade. In, 69.50. Out 75.01.
For a while, I've been watching the $BKX. 75.09 is the 38.02 retracement off the lows of July 15th. It also falls along a one-year trendline. 80 is the bottom of a channel that runs all the way back to 1991, violated in March of this year.
You really have to take a shot at an entry like this. I didn't know an appropriate level to bid for SKF, so I tried and failed at 90. I thought someone might throw theirs away in panic near the open, but it didn't happen.
Noting that RTH cleared a triple-top going back a year. A pullback would be a good spot for a defined-risk entry. I already have a half-position on with a much lower basis, will be looking to add to it.
Got hit, 100 more at 98.16. I arrived at that entry by looking at the 5-day. This would've filled the gap from Friday.
For a while, I've been watching the $BKX. 75.09 is the 38.02 retracement off the lows of July 15th. It also falls along a one-year trendline. 80 is the bottom of a channel that runs all the way back to 1991, violated in March of this year.
You really have to take a shot at an entry like this. I didn't know an appropriate level to bid for SKF, so I tried and failed at 90. I thought someone might throw theirs away in panic near the open, but it didn't happen.
Noting that RTH cleared a triple-top going back a year. A pullback would be a good spot for a defined-risk entry. I already have a half-position on with a much lower basis, will be looking to add to it.
Got hit, 100 more at 98.16. I arrived at that entry by looking at the 5-day. This would've filled the gap from Friday.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Green banana trade for Ike
Several things were in my mind last night - this week's hedge fund redemptions, the dollar/yen cross, Hurricane Ike, Bill Gross' bitchslap.
Oil was down near important support at 100. This looked like as good a time as you'd get to put on a defined-risk trade, really, nothing but a bet with a couple of ways to win.
Sitting at 72 yesterday, DIG looked to me like 2 down and 10 up. With 70 as support and every divergence in the book, I bet on a little overshoot. I put out bids at 69.50, 69, 68.50, 68. Got hit on 250 at 69.50 early in the day.
2 PM runs of all 6 models show Ike skimming south Florida and entering the GoM as a Cat 3.
After the close, we get more Nice, Cheap Words from Treasury about a Fannie/Freddie bailout that ought to goose everything at the open on Monday. The question is whether the bounce lasts a month or an hour in the morning.
Of course, there's always that twinge for selling NLY up only 9% when it's going to pop on Monday. Never regret taking a profit, though.
Oil was down near important support at 100. This looked like as good a time as you'd get to put on a defined-risk trade, really, nothing but a bet with a couple of ways to win.
Sitting at 72 yesterday, DIG looked to me like 2 down and 10 up. With 70 as support and every divergence in the book, I bet on a little overshoot. I put out bids at 69.50, 69, 68.50, 68. Got hit on 250 at 69.50 early in the day.
2 PM runs of all 6 models show Ike skimming south Florida and entering the GoM as a Cat 3.
After the close, we get more Nice, Cheap Words from Treasury about a Fannie/Freddie bailout that ought to goose everything at the open on Monday. The question is whether the bounce lasts a month or an hour in the morning.
Of course, there's always that twinge for selling NLY up only 9% when it's going to pop on Monday. Never regret taking a profit, though.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Hasty post covering the last few days
Haven't written due to vacation and lots of work-related, well, work.
One snap trade off the big nothingburger hurricane Gustav in WNR. In at 8.75, out at 10.76 for 1000.
Lost NLY to a stop. In 13.76, out 15. A little over 9%.
On the long side, considering the strength of the $HGX, liking LEN in this group as close to 10 as possible.
Many pennants in retail. GPS, KSS, even the RTH. EBHI.
Watching the reverse H&S in BA.
On the short side, lots of toppy-looking action in the transports. NSC looks like a nasty double-top with negative divergences.
There's probably more, but I'm forgetting them, whatever they are.
One snap trade off the big nothingburger hurricane Gustav in WNR. In at 8.75, out at 10.76 for 1000.
Lost NLY to a stop. In 13.76, out 15. A little over 9%.
On the long side, considering the strength of the $HGX, liking LEN in this group as close to 10 as possible.
Many pennants in retail. GPS, KSS, even the RTH. EBHI.
Watching the reverse H&S in BA.
On the short side, lots of toppy-looking action in the transports. NSC looks like a nasty double-top with negative divergences.
There's probably more, but I'm forgetting them, whatever they are.
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