Sunday, September 14, 2008

Very little point in strategizing

Sick the last several days... passed a kidney stone yesterday. I never trade or plan a trade when I'm sick.

Best to stand aside here. LEH is the elephant in the room at the open.

Outside of that, what I'm looking at: FXE makes an island. This is one of several indications $USD might be heading lower.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

A little snap trade yesterday

Trying to take advantage of all the intraday volatility plus the fact that LEH looks like a goner.

I got hit, surprisingly, on a lowball bid for some ITM Oct LEH puts, in at 3.30/out at 4.00.

If they're handing out hundred dollar bills at the door, might as well get in line...

Monday, September 8, 2008

Fannie Monday

My catalyst - Ike entering the GoM - was predicted by the models before the open, so I closed the trade. In, 69.50. Out 75.01.

For a while, I've been watching the $BKX. 75.09 is the 38.02 retracement off the lows of July 15th. It also falls along a one-year trendline. 80 is the bottom of a channel that runs all the way back to 1991, violated in March of this year.

You really have to take a shot at an entry like this. I didn't know an appropriate level to bid for SKF, so I tried and failed at 90. I thought someone might throw theirs away in panic near the open, but it didn't happen.

Noting that RTH cleared a triple-top going back a year. A pullback would be a good spot for a defined-risk entry. I already have a half-position on with a much lower basis, will be looking to add to it.

Got hit, 100 more at 98.16. I arrived at that entry by looking at the 5-day. This would've filled the gap from Friday.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Green banana trade for Ike

Several things were in my mind last night - this week's hedge fund redemptions, the dollar/yen cross, Hurricane Ike, Bill Gross' bitchslap.

Oil was down near important support at 100. This looked like as good a time as you'd get to put on a defined-risk trade, really, nothing but a bet with a couple of ways to win.

Sitting at 72 yesterday, DIG looked to me like 2 down and 10 up. With 70 as support and every divergence in the book, I bet on a little overshoot. I put out bids at 69.50, 69, 68.50, 68. Got hit on 250 at 69.50 early in the day.

2 PM runs of all 6 models show Ike skimming south Florida and entering the GoM as a Cat 3.

After the close, we get more Nice, Cheap Words from Treasury about a Fannie/Freddie bailout that ought to goose everything at the open on Monday. The question is whether the bounce lasts a month or an hour in the morning.

Of course, there's always that twinge for selling NLY up only 9% when it's going to pop on Monday. Never regret taking a profit, though.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Hasty post covering the last few days

Haven't written due to vacation and lots of work-related, well, work.

One snap trade off the big nothingburger hurricane Gustav in WNR. In at 8.75, out at 10.76 for 1000.

Lost NLY to a stop. In 13.76, out 15. A little over 9%.

On the long side, considering the strength of the $HGX, liking LEN in this group as close to 10 as possible.

Many pennants in retail. GPS, KSS, even the RTH. EBHI.

Watching the reverse H&S in BA.

On the short side, lots of toppy-looking action in the transports. NSC looks like a nasty double-top with negative divergences.

There's probably more, but I'm forgetting them, whatever they are.