Thursday, August 21, 2008

My Moral Hazard play

I had a lot of people asking me if it was time to buy the common in Fannie/Freddie. I couldn't recommend doing that at any price.

It sounds like the most likely outcome is for Treasury to buy a special class of preferred, wipe out holders of the common and make the bondholders whole.

A long play on this would be NLY, which borrows at margin rates to buy agency paper. There's not much to like in that chart, though. Risk capital only...

Update: got hit, 13.73 for 1000. This is over when the catalyst - F&F resolution - arrives.

Stopped out of DZZ and SMN when they broke their trendline as gold and commodities went on a tear today. 16% gain on the former, 19.2 on the latter.

Should have been more. Fuck, trading this market is a hard dollar.

Lost LULU to a stop. 5% loss.

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