Monday, August 11, 2008

One trade today

Sold 100 of the 700 DZZ.

Gold looked way oversold, but very sleepy at the open. I'm always wary of, like the old guys say, "being short a dull tape, " especially one that's run as much as this one.

I stuck an ask way out there this morning, never thinking it would get hit. I had no idea gold would fall off a cliff late morning. I always love selling a breakout, though.

In 24.34, out 32.78. In sell mode with the rest of the position at this point.

I put out a lowball bid on COH, never even came close to being hit because retail ran away at the open. Oh well, wait for the next bus to come along.

The things I'm watching right now are:

- FRO on the short side as it comes back to the neckline at 60 on falling volume. Target would be 48.

- $BKX also on the short side as it approaches the 80 level.

As I mentioned last week, the .382 retrace level is about 75, the .50 is 83. There's also resistance from earlier this year at 75. If you pull the chart out to a 15 year view, you find that 80 is the lower channel.

As a vehicle for this, look at SKF around 90 (about 20 sticks lower) with the notion that it could go to the low 80s, which would mean scaling into it.

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