Thursday, August 7, 2008

Watching, not acting

S&P and Dow are still in a triangle. Nothing to do here until it resolves itself one way or another.

Starting to watch the $BKX. On a 3-month, it's doing a beautiful bear wedge off the 7/15 lows. The .382 retrace is about 75, the .50 is 83.

Now, pull it out for the ultra-long view and you find that 80 is the lower channel on a chart going back over 15 years.

The fact that charts in all kinds of timeframes concur increases my confidence in the thesis that $BKX around 80 would be a good place to start putting on some SKF.

Of course, just as I was looking at it, the financials melted on this sleepy Thursday afternoon. It may be awhile before it gets there.

Other than watching and thinking, I didn't do a thing today.

Gold's H&S measures to about 851. Low today was in the 855s, so time to reset stops on DZZ. $USD did a breakout today, which aided this position.

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