Sunday, June 28, 2009

Looking at the long side

Well, let's take a look at the general markets. The S&P and Dow charts, to me, are in conflict.

On the bull side, both show a Golden Cross right here, where the 50 and 200 SMAs crossed. Also, there was a good bounce off the high 890s area in the S&P and that 8250 area in the Dow, from an oversold condition.

On the bear side, it's still a broken trendline that measures to a top around 950 S&P, 8800 Dow. Also, index put/call ratio comes just below 100, starting to get a little more bearish despite the oversold. Quarter-end games tend to end early rather than late.

Still I'd say the next 5% is up. I took some SSO on that bounce off support. Also covered the PM short, need to get a little long here.

Strong groups this past week were transports (rails have been on fire – can’t find an entry point though), telecomm.

I am not enthusiastic, but I guess I could take:

- T as close to 23.75 as you can get
- WMT looks good to enter as close to 48 as you can get.
- If you want an ETF, RTH as close to 76 as you can get.

One real flier among the transports. I probably won't do this:

- AAWW, as close to 21 as you can get him.

Some physical silver around 13.50, if he comes back.

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