Tuesday, February 10, 2009


S&P 875 is resistance here. Breakout, and it could measure to 940, breakdown and we could be back in the low 800s.

We're well into overbought range and the put/call is about 0.67, lowest since January, 2007. Not enough bears, not enough by half. That would be my bearish argument.

The only bull argument I could muster would be "Look, chart!" on a breakout, plus a desire to want to lean against everyone who wants to sell the Geithner announcement.

Dollar/yen bouncing off an uptrend line that's run since September. Could interpret it as a double-top, too, when it hits that 105 level. S&P has been tradeable by the dollar/yen for a long time. Someone, somewhere, really really wants the carry trade going again.

Reading back over these thoughts, I see a good argument for getting flat and delta-neutral.

Yesterday's action - got hit on another 2000 GBG yesterday at 1.45 near the open when he traded down.

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