Saturday, January 31, 2009

Triangles, triangles everywhere

And not a thing to buy.

Just to be contrarian, I have to ask where there are *any* good long-side trades out there? Emphasis on "trade." Everything is a batch of green bananas in this market.

Here's my best idea: UGA, the gasoline ETF. Breakout above that neckline at 23-ish measures to 30. Want to see him a little lower, but that looks like a 1-down/6-up situation.

Physical gold chart looks OK. Give it a chance to pull back to that neckline. I don't care much for any individual miner chart, though. GDX looks kinda toppy, not confirming gold's move. It could pull back 10% easily before any support.

I always start with the indices/ETFs and work down.

Almost all the broad indices and larger industry sectors look like triangles to me. S&P is a good example, lower highs and lower lows. If it breaks down, it targets to around 250, and we're not even remotely oversold here.

On the long side, Dow Transports look like a promising double-bottom around the 2920 level. RSI and Money Flow divergence but nothing else confirms. None of its individual component charts confirm the pattern either.

A couple of its components are truckers. If we look among those, we find maybe 2 out of 10 that look like this. Watching CNW, maybe HTLD around 13. Not very excited about these, though.

Dow Utes, until Wednesday, were the only group up for the year. I see a triangle with higher lows since October. Breakdown would give you a target of about 230. Breakout above that multitop, 390-ish, would be very bullish. Call this level 30.50 on the XLU. UPW about 37.50. SDP the other way.

XLP around 21.40 could be a good entry point. I don't like any of his components except, maybe PEP at 50. Setting up a trend indicator, oscillator and RSI divergence at that level.

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